Goals of the task
The goal is to conduct a series of workshops within the RP team and together with local stakeholders in each case city to define scenarios for potential future developments and analyse the effects of intended trans-sectoral infrastructure planning. The first scenario workshop in each RP case city sets the framework of the scenario setup and gets approval of the assumptions to be made for scenario setup and simulation. It also presents the simulation framework and allows considering related feedback in the scenario simulation process. The scenarios will be simulated by the RP team in Task 6.2. Scenario simulation results will be presented and discussed in the second scenario workshop in each RP case city. The process leads to intense exchange between the RP team and local stakeholders concerning methodology, approach and goals of the project and planning, visions and decision making in the respective case city.
Work done to achieve the goals
As a first step, TUB studied different scenario techniques to suggest a suitable procedure for RP. Many RP partners are involved in the setup of scenarios, so a major task is to steer the discussion and progressively lead to decision making on the scenario outline.
Major activities of the RP project converge in WP6. The results from WP5, development of trans-sectoral methodology (Task 5.3) and of trans-sectoral models (Task 5.4) will be applied by using the models for scenario-simulation in WP6. Data validation has to take place in WP4 and all sector experts have to share their knowledge and impressions on context-specific as well as global trends and possible scenarios. WP7 contributes with knowledge on visions and plans regarding urban planning and infrastructure planning in the case cities. Therefore, it was necessary to build a common vision in the team on the extent, approach and desired outcome of the scenario process with several workshops. Results are fixated with a working paper that is updated and circulated in the team in intervals.
Besides an agreement on the approach, a consistent frame of data and information on existing and planned infrastructure, consumption and disposal patterns as well as visions for urban development for communication within the team and with local partners, is needed. To prepare for the first workshop in Da Nang and to integrate the existing knowledge on different levels, TUB has assembled relevant data and information by generating a set of maps showing existing and planned infrastructure (based on the findings of Task 1.1) with an overlay of the planned land use of the masterplan (built-up area, agriculture etc.) and added text boxes with:
- Facts – key facts on existing infrastructure and consumption
- Major trends – main sectoral and context-specific trends, for instance an increasing demand for so called “safe vegetables” and decreasing space for regular agriculture regarding the sector urban agriculture/ food
- Data tables – to prepare the definition of quantitative time series data for the setup of the scenarios to be simulated. Many aspects of simulation require numerical input data.
- Strategies/ masterplans – reflecting sectoral goals and measures that are planned by the government
- Results of the empowerment workshops – further reflecting sectoral objectives based on the “obstacle based planning” method (Task 9.2)
The maps provide information for the modelling of sectoral and trans-sectoral infrastructures (Fig. 61). In addition, they will be the base for the first workshop to inspire a discussion on existing and planned infrastructure and future development goals – as the trans-sectoral scenario will root in positive sectoral goals in order to subsequently identify and generate trans-sectoral goals.
Results so far
Agreed Scenario outline
As the scenario process serves to analyse the effects of the application of trans-sectoral infrastructure planning, the focus lies on the possible development of each infrastructure and the quality and intensity of their connections in terms of the urban metabolism of the city – exploring the question, if trans-sectoral planning leads to a better resource management. We will conduct two scenarios:
- A reference scenario based on the expectations, goals and parameters of existing masterplans and strategic sectoral plans.
- A trans-sectoral scenario – or if required and possible – several trans-sectoral scenarios - that is/ are based on the same general parameters but with thematic additions.
Preparatory step: Infrastructure planning is based on demand detected by RP spatial analysis:
- RP sectoral scenarios: Sector-specific positive but still realistic goals have to be defined and will be met in the scenario based on empowering workshop results. To meet these goals, the team of local stakeholders and RP sector experts has to come up with innovative ideas/ measures which need to be specified in a way that these can be considered in the trans-sectoral scenario simulation.
- RP trans-sectoral scenario: This scenario will be the application of a trans-sectoral planning approach. The interlinkages/ synergies between the sectors are identified and exploited, possibly leading to a more sufficient and sustainable resource management. To enable trans-sectoral interlinkages/ synergies, it is necessary to frame positive sector specific goals prior in the sectoral scenarios. In this context, different social, environmental and economic criteria should be defined and considered by the sectoral and trans-sectoral scenario simulation.
If required, there will be variations within the scenario reflecting different goals in optimising the interlinkages, e.g. with regard to the three pillars of sustainability (social, environmental, economic including costs), resilience, central and/ or decentralised infrastructure, social acceptance and/ or level of innovation.
The first scenario workshop in Da Nang – originally scheduled for December 2016 – was postponed in agreement with the RP consortium as the required input of integrated results from other workpackages had not reached the state to start the scenario process. As new prospective date, October is being envisaged, the second workshop is planned some months thereafter and will be combined with the stakeholder conference.
Sectoral maps compiling a comprehensive data frame were generated as drafts and circulated in the team for feedback (Fig. 60). Using this information, a draft model of the water, wastewater, energy and waste system of Da Nang has been set up. The model is currently being refined and will be used for the sectoral and trans-sectoral scenario simulation (Task 6.2).
Fig. 60: Sectoral map of water supply in Da Nang
Displaying existing and planned infrastructure and text boxes on facts, trends, masterplan/ strategies and empowerment workshop results